Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 78212.613606 82626.651806 87044.763800 91795.614309 96756.604989 101781.003332 107251.104161
2025-12-07 71365.657072 78117.613949 85068.158604 92748.182611 100986.582506 109548.815208 119110.538078
2025-12-14 65894.799261 74197.890932 82937.281361 92801.820602 103606.512226 115060.821767 128101.539709
2025-12-21 61835.057587 71302.246619 81453.984333 93117.041274 106112.653097 120114.307386 136306.244148
2025-12-28 59305.051798 69803.167114 81241.812266 94583.082953 109666.240744 126139.775286 145440.815835
2026-01-04 56926.770232 68263.647419 80796.052616 95612.408278 112581.941447 131340.978197 153574.717686
2026-01-11 54645.135703 66669.589178 80140.887124 96266.797821 114956.425150 135845.042416 160862.404257
2026-01-18 52321.880093 64887.970859 79144.752704 96411.591249 116646.271898 139493.647238 167122.227279
2026-01-25 50281.462318 63327.167517 78304.676504 96643.882625 118357.870115 143108.482957 173306.309976
2026-02-01 48245.656231 61672.725485 77264.610421 96556.636684 119623.763353 146153.239762 178794.491480
2026-02-08 46821.437999 60684.968193 76954.614458 97280.409395 121803.561165 150239.798465 185496.265338
2026-02-15 45109.957470 59272.604881 76067.629623 97249.882349 123032.944034 153170.321189 190815.526754
2026-02-22 44183.065167 58806.293681 76317.940915 98600.538322 125946.432052 158148.379094 198650.306508
2026-03-01 43072.415193 58066.256566 76196.812949 99469.796371 128262.812477 162416.332098 205663.032346
2026-03-08 41622.441443 56842.564958 75427.861758 99495.421419 129513.349308 165379.172520 211099.298626
2026-03-15 40405.589301 55869.783053 74930.802443 99822.197251 131106.946739 168743.883840 217025.827471
2026-03-22 39831.457407 55698.090282 75421.279469 101372.406058 134214.459618 173968.155372 225253.645818
2026-03-29 39085.171093 55271.455536 75562.397239 102461.409162 136736.013761 178475.988110 232623.590967
2026-04-05 38205.733964 54637.502496 75410.204320 103153.817862 138744.345760 182347.254836 239221.817286
2026-04-12 37139.315224 53719.969372 74859.991185 103307.016944 140048.550257 185332.508298 244723.554875
2026-04-19 36165.073314 52894.221045 74400.887064 103552.812310 141452.748380 188435.435586 250379.178311
2026-04-26 35097.987021 51909.918757 73703.499340 103460.492857 142401.355126 190953.169293 255300.711335
2026-05-03 34426.594919 51443.445189 73671.976176 104226.321414 144450.701193 194866.671457 262002.742630